[Marinir] Indonesia Digest No: 16.06 ; 21 - 05 - '06

[Yap Hong Gie]

INDONESIA DIGEST
Indonesia's complex Issues in a Nutshell

Published by: TBSC-Strategic Communication
No.: 16.06 - Dated: 21 May 2006
In this issue:

MAIN FEATURE:

TO TRY OR NOT TO TRY SOEHARTO

NEWS AND BACKGROUND:

1.      Tourism and Transportation:
2005 Tourism Earnings Down 8.3%
Indonesia's Service Sector grows at a slow 5%

2.      Health, Culture and the Environment:
Another cluster infected, Indonesia now counts 30 deaths from Avian Flu
Merapi Volcano Erupts
-----------------------------------------------------------


MAIN FEATURE:

TO TRY OR NOT TO TRY SOEHARTO
Almost two weeks after former President Soeharto was taken critically ill to
the Pertamina hospital and a section of his bleeding intestines operated,
today the former leader is still in critical condition and not out of
danger, reports his team of doctors. Doctors had earlier expected that it
would take the 84 year old leader about one week to recover from surgery and
to be out of danger. However, new complications seemed to appear over and
again. A second small operation was made to allow a tube into the intestines
to help the digestive system that was still malfunctioning. And, after a
further CT-scan, doctors (18 May) found two fresh blockages in the brain and
a shrinkage of the brain size, and so again a "small" operation was done to
remove the blood clots.

Deputy Chairman of Parliament, Saenal Ma'arif now warns the nation that it
must be prepared to bid farewell to "Pak Harto", Indonesia's once powerful
President who ruled the country for more than 32 years.  On Friday, 19 May,
President and Mme. Yudhoyono came to visit the ailing former President.
Soeharto was said not to be able to communicate, and the President could
only speak to Soeharto's daughter and team of doctors.
President Soeharto came into power in 1965 at the abortive communist coup in
which thousands were killed on both sides of the conflict, including six top
generals and an aide, who were found tortured and their remains thrown into
an old well at the Halim Perdanakusumah airport complex. The abortive coup
resulted in Indonesia's first President, Soekarno, being ousted from power
and the Indonesian Communist Party, - then the largest outside of the USSR
and China, - banned.

After being elected President, Soeharto's first duty was to restore order in
the country and to jack up the ailing economy, which at the time was almost
in shambles. He appointed respected economists likeWidjojo Nitisastro, Emil
Salim and others, who pushed Indonesia's economic development. Soeharto also
opened the gates to foreign investments, with giant mining company,
Freeport, being one of the first to invest in Indonesia. Over the years
Indonesia's economy blossomed and people's incomes and living standard
improved. Indonesia even became self-sufficient in rice. All this Soeharto
managed to do by pulling all powers over this huge archipelago to the
centre, to wit to Soeharto himself as president. The military also became
powerful and was given strategic positions in the civilian administration,
as governors, district heads, even village heads.

After a while, corruption became the byword for progress and power, and
human rights of many were violated. Thus, when the Indonesian economy again
crashed with the 1997 Asian crisis, Soeharto's once exclusive powers were
publicly questioned. Through national student protests, which also saw a
number of students killed, the call for Reform rang out, which was widely
supported by the Indonesian people. On 13 May street riots flared up in
Jakarta and elsewhere, that killed hundreds of people, many of Chinese
ethnic descent. Unable to control the country any longer, Soeharto stepped
down on 21 May 1998, - exactly 8 years today,-  passing the presidency on to
his then Vice-President B.J. Habibie. With this historic step ended the New
Order regime of President Soeharto that ruled over Indonesia for more than
three decades.  In the eight years since then, Indonesia has seen no less
than four presidents. Consecutively B.J.Habibie, Abdurrahman Wahid also
known as Gus Dur, Megawati Soekarnoputri, and in 2004, S.B.Yudjoyono
became President through majority vote in the country's first direct
presidential
elections.

In the year 2000, Former President Soeharto was to be tried for graft. He
was charged with corruption involving US$ 420 million and Rp. 1.3 trillion.
But when then Attorney General submitted the corruption case for trial at
the South Jakarta Court, doctors investigating the condition of the former
President declared that Soeharto was unfit to stand trial since he suffered
from permanent and irreparable damage to the brain, as his memory and
cognitive senses were deemed permanently impaired. The case was, therefore,
(temporarily) closed and returned to the Office of the Attorney General,
leaving the onus back onto the AG. This situation left a verdict - of either
guilt or innocence - on Soeharto hanging for years, until today.

And so, since the first few days of Soeharto's hospitalization a forthnight
ago, a stream of VIP's came to visit, although they were only allowed to see
the leader from behind a glass screen. As each was interviewed by the
waiting press, each expressed the opinion that in Soeharto's critical
condition today, the time has come for the nation to pardon his past
mistakes and recognize the contributions that Soeharto had made to the
country. Persons like former Minister for Law, Muladi, even urged President
Yudhoyono to rehabilitate Soeharto's good name.
Parliament and the People's General Assembly in their meeting on the case
agreed that the decision to either pardon or to continue investigations be
left to the Executive, and in particular to the discretion of President
Yudhoyono. For a while no word was forthcoming from the President,
although speculations in the press were rife.

Then one morning (12/5), minutes before boarding his plane to Bali to open
the Meeting of the Islamic D-8 nations, and after consultations with leaders
of Parliament and other State Institutions the night before, President
Yudhoyono finally made known his stance on the matter to the public in a
"breaking news" announcement.
Indeed it is right and correct, the President said, that the nation must
respect its former leaders for their precious contributions in building this
nation.This is true towards all former leaders, not only in regard to
Indonesia's second President, Soeharto, but also vis-à-vis the nation's
first President, Sukarno. We also know, he said, that former President
Soeharto is today in critical condition.

Pardoning past mistakes of leaders is, therefore, indeed a noble deed. "Yet,
however noble and good the cause, if decisions made are made without
thorough consideration and in haste, with little regard to their
implications, then this may bear the seeds of the threat of disintegration
of the nation. The decision that we msut take must be just, wise and right".
Thus, the President urged the nation to allow time to thoroughly mull over
the implications in order to find the best and wisest solution. Meanwhile,
it is wise to let emotions and opinions settle, said the President. Let us
look to the future while the nation mulls over the stance that we all must
take vis-à-vis our two former Presidents, said Yudhoyono. Nonetheless, with
that statement, both those who are for or against a pardon of Soeharto were
left in a quandary. And, the controversy rages on in the press.

Meanwhile, Attorney General Abdularahman Saleh was at first adamant that he
would reopen the case of Soeharto. He would do this as soon as doctors
informed that Soeharto was fit for trial. Nonetheless, after consulting the
medical team, who again confirmed Soeharto's unfit condition to stand trial
based on the fact that the former leader could not understand a sentence of
more than four words, and could even not distinguish drawings between a
rabbit and a turtle, - thus denoting that the former leader's mental
functions were indeed permanently impaired - the Attorney General came to
the (maybe not surprising) decision that it was time to close the corruption
case of former President Soeharto. This the AG did through the issuance of
the so-called SKPPP dated 11 May 2006.

Later he explained that his Decision was not to be interpreted as an
official pardon. For, the Decision included a clause, that should one day
medical science be capable of restoring Soeharto's brain functions, then the
case could be re-opened. The above closure is based on legal requirements
that a defendant must be physically and mentally fit to defend himself to be
allowed to stand trial.
The day earlier, the AG had rescinded his previous decision to deny Soeharto
from leaving the country. Therefore, now should the family decide to seek
treatment overseas, they would be allowed to do so.

By this time the public was becoming even more confused. Was Soeharto
pardoned or not? Was the AG acting on his own behalf, against the decision
of the President, who had asked to let the case stand as is?  Later it
appeared that the AG's letter of closure was signed the day before the
announcement made by President Yudhoyono, however, officially announced
to the public after President Yudhoyono's "Breaking News" statement.

Now, those against a total pardon began to speak up: "Although the rights of
the defendant are upheld by the legal system, the Government, however,
neglects the rights of the victims", said Hendardi, speaking on behalf of
the victims at a "Topik" talkshow in SCTV. Many ordinary people have lost
tracts of land they once owned which were confiscated by Soeharto and his
cronies. Whose rights, then, are more important to be fought for, the
violator's or the victims'? People should have their rightful assets
restored, or at least, moneys stolen must be returned to the state.

Therefore, the Anti-Corruption Commission, KPK must act now to bring
Soeharto to trial, even if this means to try him "in absentia", opines
Hendardi. To which the AG replied that since this (the absence of physical
and mental health of the accused to stand trial) is a legal principle, even
KPK can not violate this basic principle. Besides, Soeharto can not be tried
in absentia since he is still alive, is in the country and has made no
attempts to flee.

AG further explained that what has been stopped is the criminal trial. This
leaves the way open for the Prosecution to file a civil suit against
Soeharto. Furthermore, a number of Soeharto's cronies have already been
tried and jailed, expounded Attorney General Abdulrahman Saleh. These
include Soeharto's brother Probosutedjo, son Tommy Soeharto, and former
Bulog Chairman, Beddu Amang, and others.

Meanwhile, doctors report that the health of former President Soeharto
continues in critical condition. While outside, student demonstrations and
other activitists crowd the streets urging the government to relentlessly
bring to justice Soeharto and his cronies.

In the latest developments, after visiting the ailing former leader,
President Yudhoyono is reported to have called Coordinating Minister for
Politics, Law and Security, Military Commander, and Religious Affairs
Minister, for a closed meeting to prepare for "any eventualities".

(Sources: SCTV, Kompas, ANTV, Metro TV)
(Tuti Sunario)
---------------------------------------------------------------------


NEWS AND BACKGROUND:

Tourism and Transportation:

2005 Tourism Earnings Down 8.3%

The Office of the Coordinating Minister for the Economy informed that total
receipts from Tourism in 2005 was US$ 4.4 billion, or down 8.33% compared
to 2004, which saw tourism earnings add up to a total of US$ 4.8 billion,
reports Bisnis Indonesia. This was caused by a decline of 8.23% in the
number of visitors in 2005 compared to data of the previous year.  Average
length of stay of tourists has also shortened from 9.55 days in 2004 to 9.47
days in 2005. The good news, however, is that average spending per visitor
has improved from US$95.17 per stay in 2004 to US$99.86/person/stay in 2005.

Nonetheless, Indonesia lags behind tourist arrivals in neighbouring
countries. For, in 2003 Malaysia already received 10.6 million visitors,
Thailand 10.1 million and Singapore 6.1 million, whilst Indonesia received
4.47 million.

Meanwhile, Bank Indonesia's latest survey on hotels in Jakarta found that
three-star hotels were the the preferred accommodation. Three-star hotels in
the greater Jakarta area that include Bogor, Tangerang and Bekasi, improved
average occupancy rate from 64.74% to 67.83%.

Four and five-star rated hotels also improved from 61.93% to 69.79% and from
46.53% to 59.53% respectively. However, rates for these hotels have
declined, with 9.44% for four-star hotels, namely from Rp. 415,285 per
average room night, to Rp. 376,061. Similarly, five-star hotel rates slid
3.01%, from Rp. 724.266 per room night, to Rp. 713,157 per room night.

Indonesia's Service Sector grows at a slow 5%

With a growth of 5%, Indonesia's Service Sector lags behind the
transportation sector, which increased by 13%, and Trade by 9%, said
Chairman of the Indonesian Economists Association ISEI, who is also Bank
Indonesia Governor, Burhanudin Abdullah in Denpasar, Bali. Whereas, in the
face of globalization, other countries in the region, such as Malaysia,
Singapore and Thailand, are relying heavily on the service sector to boost
their economies. Singapore, in particular has made the service sector the
engine of growth of their economy. The service sector is also able to boost
regional economies, said Abdullah, citing Bali as a prime example, where its
economy is boosted by tourism. In Bali, other sectors have grown through and
with tourism, which pulls along the trade sector, hotels and restaurants,
transportation and communication, the handicrafts industry and food and
beverage.


Health, Culture and the Environment:

Another cluster infected, Indonesia now counts 30 deaths from Avian Flu

The World Health Organization, WHO, has confirmed that 30 out of 40 known
patients in Indonesia have died from the Avian Flu. These are 11 patients in
Jakarta, 6 in the province of Banten, 12 in West Java, 3 in Cenral Java, 1
in East Java, all on the island of Java, and 3 in Lampung and 4 patients in
the province of North Sumatra on the island of Sumatra.

In the latest case, a family of five living in the Karo highlands in North
Sumatra, was found infected with the H5N1 virus, adding another cluster
infected with the H5N1 virus. Four members have since died and one is still
treated in a hospital in Medan.

Initial results from tests had found no virus in poultry or animals in the
area. But subsequent tests confirmed that both poultry and pigs were
positively infected with the H5N1 virus.

Therefore, to prevent further spread of the disease, the government will
cull all chicken, ducks and pigs within a one kilometer radius of the home
of the infected cluster.

Picking up the issue, on-line C-News of Canada, ( by Helen Branswerll,
20/5), comments that the " worrisome cluster of human cases of H5N1 avian
flu in a remote village in Indonesia is raising serious questions about the
feasibility of an international plan to try to stop an emerging pandemic at
source.
Mathematical models have suggested containing a pandemic could be possible
with a swift and sweeping response. Based on those findings, experts at the
World Health Organization have been working for months on a strategy to try
to effect containment, if and when the need arises.
But the outbreak in Indonesia, where disease investigators have been met
with fear and suspicion, illuminates the enormous challenges the pandemic
SWAT team would face in trying to snuff out a nascent pandemic strain before
it could spread from its place of origin to sweep the globe".


Merapi Volcano Erupts
After weeks of anxious waiting and watching the activities of Mount Merapi,
finally on Saturday, 13 May volcanologists raised the Code Red alert. This
meant that Merapi is finally ready to erupt, triggering mandatoray
evacuation of some 30,000 residents living within the radius of 12 km. from
the crater.

The volcano, located in the heart of densely populated  island of Java on
the border between the provinces of Central Java and Yogyakarta, has been
rumbling for weeks, spewing ash high into the air and pushing lava to the
surface, where it has formed a large, unstable dome of volcanic material.
On Monday, the volcano spewed surges of clouds high up in the air,
containing volcanic gas, rock fragments and other debris known to experts as
pyroclastic flows, then tumbling as far as four kilometres down the
mountain's western slopes. This is twice as far compared to the day earlier,
volcanologists said. Locals call these billowing clouds, "wedhus gembel", or
fleecy goats, because they resemble tightly curled balls of wool as they
avalanche down the mountain at speeds of more than 95 km/h, together with
hot lava flows that run down river beds at temperatures of more than 900°
Centigrade.

Merapi is not a volcano that erupts with a big violent bang. Its eruptions
are indicated by surges of large searing clouds of volcanic ash, gas and
debris, that fertilize the surrounding slopes, and therefore, attract people
to live and work around its crater. And, because, the volcano continues to
be regularly active, without violent eruption, residents here are confident
that they "know" the nature of their volcano, as they continue undisturbed
with their daily chores. Only when the "wedhus gembel" appears, do they
start to panic and ask to be evacuated. Before that, no amount of urging
based on "scientific data" can induce them to leave their homes, however
much government authorities order them to.

Today, although clouds and lava flows have decreased in the last days,
volcanologists continue to raise the Red Code alert since the unstable dome
of rocks and other materials that still sits on the crater's top may
collapse and come down the slopes at any moment.

For your comments or more information, please e-mail to:
tbsc-strategy at indo.net.id


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