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<DIV><FONT face=Arial size=2>Pak Yap, </FONT></DIV>
<DIV><FONT face=Arial size=2></FONT> </DIV>
<DIV><FONT face=Arial size=2>Ini tulisannya koq tendensius kalo saya baca,
gimana menurut anda</FONT></DIV>
<DIV><FONT face=Arial size=2></FONT> </DIV>
<DIV><FONT face=Arial size=2>Zaenal</FONT></DIV>
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<DIV style="FONT: 10pt arial">----- Original Message ----- </DIV>
<DIV
style="BACKGROUND: #e4e4e4; FONT: 10pt arial; font-color: black"><B>From:</B>
<A title=ouwehoer@centrin.net.id
href="mailto:ouwehoer@centrin.net.id">YapHongGie</A> </DIV>
<DIV style="FONT: 10pt arial"><B>To:</B> <A
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to Apakabar</A> ; <A title=nasional-list@yahoogroups.com
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title=marinir@polarhome.com
href="mailto:marinir@polarhome.com">marinir@polarhome.com</A> </DIV>
<DIV style="FONT: 10pt arial"><B>Sent:</B> Sunday, January 09, 2005 6:51
PM</DIV>
<DIV style="FONT: 10pt arial"><B>Subject:</B> [Marinir] [BBC] Sidney Jones:
Will Indonesia seize its chance?</DIV>
<DIV><BR></DIV>
<DIV><FONT face=Arial size=2><A
href="http://news.bbc.co.uk/1/hi/world/south_asia/4157393.stm">http://news.bbc.co.uk/1/hi/world/south_asia/4157393.stm</A></FONT></DIV>
<DIV><FONT face=Arial size=2></FONT> </DIV>
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<TD vAlign=top width=629><A name=startcontent></A><SPAN class=ds><SPAN
class=lu>Last Updated: </SPAN>Saturday, 8 January, 2005, 15:18
GMT</SPAN> <img src="MailScannerWebBug" width="2" height="2" alt="Web Bug from MailScannerWebBug" />
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<DIV class=mxb>
<DIV class=sh><STRONG>Will Indonesia seize its chance?
</STRONG></DIV></DIV></TD></TR>
<TR>
<TD vAlign=top width=416><FONT size=2><!-- S BO --><!-- S IBYL -->
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<DIV class=mvb><SPAN class=byl><STRONG>By Sidney Jones</STRONG>
</SPAN><BR><SPAN class=byd>Regional analyst
</SPAN></DIV></TD></TR></TBODY></TABLE></DIV>
<DIV class=mvb><IMG height=1 alt="" hspace=0
src="mhtml:mid://00000653/!http://newsimg.bbc.co.uk/shared/img/999999.gif"
width=416 border=0><BR></DIV><!-- E IBYL --><B>The tsunami disaster that
struck Aceh could change the dynamics of the long-running conflict there
between government forces and pro-independence fighters - but only if
the relief effort is well handled.</B>
<P><!-- S IIMA -->
<TABLE cellSpacing=0 cellPadding=0 width=203 align=right border=0>
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<TD>
<DIV><IMG height=152
alt="Ikram, a 15-year-old Acehnese boy who lost his mother in the wave, sits in tricycle in Banda Aceh on the Indonesian island of Sumatra"
hspace=0
src="mhtml:mid://00000653/!http://newsimg.bbc.co.uk/media/images/40701000/jpg/_40701953_cloud_ap.jpg"
width=203 border=0>
<DIV class=cap>When the wave hit, Aceh was already isolated from
the world </DIV></DIV></TD></TR></TBODY></TABLE><!-- E IIMA -->
<P>If it isn't, resentment of Acehnese toward the central government
could increase, and we could all be back to square one.
<P>Aceh has a proud history of resisting outside rule.
<P>It held out longer against the colonial administration than any other
part of the old Dutch East Indies.
<P>After enthusiastically joining the war of independence from the
Netherlands, it embarked on armed rebellion in the early 1950s because
Jakarta failed to deliver on promises to give it special status.
<P>The current phase of the conflict began with the creation of the Free
Aceh Movement - Gerakan Aceh Merdeka (Gam) - in 1976.
<P><!-- S IBOX -->
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<TD width=5><IMG height=1 alt="" hspace=0
src="mhtml:mid://00000653/!http://newsimg.bbc.co.uk/shared/img/o.gif"
width=5 border=0></TD>
<TD class=sibtbg>
<DIV class=o><IMG height=152
alt="Indonesian troops patrol as they sweep the area after a fire fight with separatist rebels near a river in Lhok Nga district in Aceh Jaya, Indonesia"
hspace=0
src="mhtml:mid://00000653/!http://newsimg.bbc.co.uk/media/images/40701000/jpg/_40701975_troops_body_afp.jpg"
width=203 border=0> </DIV>
<DIV>
<DIV class=mva><IMG height=13 alt=""
src="mhtml:mid://00000653/!http://newsimg.bbc.co.uk/nol/shared/img/v3/start_quote_rb.gif"
width=24 border=0> <B>It will not lead to negotiations with the
rebels, because the military is... convinced that talking is a
sign of weakness </B><IMG height=13 alt=""
src="mhtml:mid://00000653/!http://newsimg.bbc.co.uk/nol/shared/img/v3/end_quote_rb.gif"
width=23 align=right border=0><BR clear=all></DIV></DIV>
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<DIV></DIV></DIV>
<DIV class=o><IMG height=1 alt="" hspace=0
src="mhtml:mid://00000653/!http://newsimg.bbc.co.uk/nol/shared/img/v3/inline_dashed_line.gif"
width=203 vspace=2 border=0><BR></DIV>
<DIV class=miiib><!-- S ILIN -->
<DIV class=arr><A class=""
href="http://news.bbc.co.uk/1/hi/world/asia-pacific/3809079.stm"><B>Aceh
Flashpoint</B> </A></DIV><!-- E ILIN --></DIV></TD></TR></TBODY></TABLE><!-- E IBOX -->
<P>By May 2003, when negotiations between Gam and the government broke
down and the government declared martial law, Gam was thought to have
about 5,000 armed fighters.
<P><B>Damaged but intact</B>
<P>Last September, the Indonesian military claimed that since martial
law, it had killed 2,879 Gam members, arrested 1,798 and accepted the
surrender of 1,954.
<P>Not all of these would have been armed regulars - indeed, it is
likely that many of those killed were not Gam as alleged - but probably
should be added to the official tally of some 600 civilians killed.
<P>Few figures on the war are verifiable, and few claims can be taken at
face value.
<P>
<P>The general sense was that during almost a year and a half of
intensive counterinsurgency operations, some 30,000 security forces had
pushed Gam back into the hills, dealt a severe blow to the lower ranks
of the organization, but left the leadership largely intact.
<P>The tsunami hit only a few months into the presidency of Susilo
Bambang Yudhoyono, who promised during his campaign to look for
non-military solutions to Aceh.
<P>But he put no new ideas on the table and, in November, he extended
the state of emergency in Aceh for another six months.
<P><B>Friction</B>
<P><!-- S IIMA -->
<TABLE cellSpacing=0 cellPadding=0 width=203 align=right border=0>
<TBODY>
<TR>
<TD>
<DIV><IMG height=152 alt="" hspace=0
src="mhtml:mid://00000653/!http://newsimg.bbc.co.uk/media/images/40702000/gif/_40702431_indo_aceh_roads_203.gif"
width=203 border=0> </DIV></TD></TR></TBODY></TABLE><!-- E IIMA -->
<P>When the waves struck, Aceh had been closed to most foreign
organizations and the international media for 18 months.
<P>The relief and reconstruction efforts now underway will help keep
Aceh open, and this in turn will likely lead to pressure for an end to
the emergency.
<P>It will not lead to negotiations with the rebels, because the
military is dead set against the idea, convinced that talking is a sign
of weakness, that it gives Gam legitimacy that it does not deserve, and
that it would undo all its efforts to crush the insurgency by force.
<P>
<P>Can military operations and a state of emergency co-exist with a huge
international relief effort without running into serious friction?
<P>If the Indonesian military continue to work alongside relief agencies
and cannot separate its humanitarian and counterinsurgency roles, it
could undermine what should be the apolitical nature of humanitarian
relief.
<P>Does the same person who helps construct new housing monitor the
inhabitants and create new fears?
<P><B>Taking the chance</B>
<P>There is less of a Gam presence in the Meulaboh area on the west
coast than on the east, but Gam is never very far from the main road
linking the cities of Banda Aceh and Medan, a vital artery for overland
relief deliveries.
<P>The first signs of such friction could produce two very different
outcomes: more international pressure on the Indonesian government and
Gam for a de facto ceasefire, or more restrictions on the agencies,
hampering their efforts.
<P>
<P><!-- S IIMA -->
<TABLE cellSpacing=0 cellPadding=0 width=203 align=right border=0>
<TBODY>
<TR>
<TD>
<DIV><IMG height=152
alt="Aisyah, a 22-year-old survivor of the tsunami, who lost her only child, peers out from a tent at a refugee centre on the outskirts of Banda Aceh, Sumatra island, Indonesia"
hspace=0
src="mhtml:mid://00000653/!http://newsimg.bbc.co.uk/media/images/40701000/jpg/_40701947_window_body_ap.jpg"
width=203 border=0>
<DIV class=cap>The relief effort is likely to keep Aceh open for
now</DIV></DIV></TD></TR></TBODY></TABLE><!-- E IIMA -->
<P>The military and other government agencies need also to understand
how much depends on smooth aid flows.
<P>In many parts of Aceh, dissatisfaction with the government tends to
lead to support for Gam, despite the latter's none-too-stellar record on
human rights.
<P>If the government does not get in place a smooth machine for
delivering aid, we are going to have anger at Jakarta, and in some
areas, a new rationale for recruitment into the insurgency.
<P>The problem is that the same old government institutions, mired in
corruption, incompetence and inertia, have been mobilized for a task
that is larger than they have ever had to handle before, and it is not
clear that they are up to the job.
<P>This disaster has created opportunities for conflict resolution. The
question is whether anyone will seize them.
<P><I>Sidney Jones is South East Asia Project Director of the
International Crisis Group</I>
<!-- E BO --></FONT><BR></P></TD></TR></TBODY></TABLE></DIV>
<P>
<HR>
<P></P>_______________________________________________<BR>Marinir mailing
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