[Nasional-e] The dangers of Saddam's endgame

[Ambon]

The dangers of Saddam's endgame
 David Ignatius IHT  Saturday, November 9, 2002

The coming storm

PARIS With this week's completion of a United Nations resolution giving Iraq
a "final opportunity" to surrender its weapons of mass destruction, Saddam
Hussein faces a stark choice: Disarm or die. In truth, they both amount to
the same thing. Saddam is finished, and many Iraqis seem to understand that
this story is now moving into its endgame.
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A faction within Saddam's government is said to be urging him to comply with
the UN resolution. Give up the weapons, they are supposedly telling the
Iraqi leader. The real source of Iraqi power is the country's scientific and
technical expertise, they contend, which will still be there in a few years
when the Americans have forgotten about Iraq again. The advocates of this
compromise approach are said to include officials in ministries that have
extensive dealings with the West on issues such as energy, trade and foreign
affairs.
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But nobody in Saddam's inner circle is thought to be advocating compliance,
for a simple reason: They know that if he gave up the weapons he has
secretly been accumulating for so many years, it would amount to a
disastrous loss of face. The regime's authority would crumble - and Saddam,
his family and inner circle would be more vulnerable than ever to attack.
That's why Saddam Hussein is likely to seek a defiant and probably suicidal
last stand. He has few other viable choices. He is damned if he doesn't
capitulate to UN arms inspectors and damned if he does.
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Reports of a slow-motion disintegration of Saddam's regime are making their
way to the West. They can't be called "reliable" information - nothing
people tell you about Iraq really deserves that status - but they are
suggestive of what's going on inside the country.
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The first sign of discord is the debate that's said to be taking place
within the leadership over what to do about the new UN inspections regime.
Obviously, the faction arguing for compliance senses that the only
alternative is a war Iraq would lose.
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A second sign of internal confusion is that some prominent Iraqis are said
to be preparing for the end - by getting their money and their families out
of the country. These Iraqis who see the writing on the wall are said to
include some senior officials close to Saddam, although not members of his
own immediate family.
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A third sign of the coming storm is that some prominent Arab businessmen are
said to be positioning themselves for the change of regime - and the postwar
boom that is likely to follow. The Arab world may be uncomfortable with U.S.
policy toward Iraq, but people recognize a business opportunity when they
see one.
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A final sign of the approaching endgame is that key Republican Guard
officers are said to be weighing their options. A U.S. psychological warfare
campaign is trying to assure them that if they stay in their barracks and
don't fight, they will be safe - that their soldiers, their families, their
tribe, their Sunni religious minority and the Iraqi military class as a
whole will survive.
.
Part of this psychological campaign is an attempt to convince ordinary
Iraqis - and even some senior officials - that they won't be held
responsible for Saddam's crimes. The idea is to portray Iraqis as victims
rather than henchmen. That's why the list of Iraqis likely to be charged in
advance with war crimes will probably be relatively short - to leave the
door open for everyone else to cooperate.
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Some analysts are claiming that this process of defection is well under way.
I don't believe it. The Iraqi military still needs to be convinced that the
United States and its allies are serious - that they are coming, with
weapons that are devastating beyond anything seen in the 1991 Gulf War.
"They'll need to smell the exhaust of an Abrams tank before they switch
sides," one analyst cautions.
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The reason these Iraqis are wary is that they remember the past 10 years,
when America talked about liberating Iraq but did nothing - and thousands of
 Iraqis who trusted the United States were slaughtered. No sensible Iraqi
military officer will want to risk himself or his family this time unless he
is sure.
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Keep your eye on Saddam Hussein as he is pushed inexorably toward the
corner. I suspect that once the UN inspection regime is in place, he's a
loser - either way he moves. The danger is, how many Americans, Israelis and
Arabs will he take down with him? The Iraqi leader has an endgame strategy,
too. We just don't know what it is.
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