[Nasional-e] War must not be seen as inevitable

[Ambon]

EDITORIAL

War must not be seen as inevitable

U.N. weapons inspectors are back in Iraq after a four-year hiatus. An
advance team of about 30, accompanied by Mr. Hans Blix, head of the U.N.
Monitoring, Verification and Inspection Commission, and Mr. Mohamed
ElBaradei, director of the International Atomic Energy Agency, arrived in
Baghdad on Monday aboard a chartered flight. Formal inspections are expected
to begin on Nov. 27 following consultations with Iraqi officials and
logistic preparations.

The inspectors will be working under the shadow of a threatened U.S. strike
against Iraq. But war is not inevitable, Mr. Blix said, if Iraq cooperates
with them in earnest. It is hoped that Baghdad will provide full
cooperation, with no strings attached. The United States, for its part,
should fully support this opportunity to avoid war by ensuring that the
inspections are thorough.

UNMOVIC, created in 1999, must set an example of effective arms inspection.
Its predecessor, the U.N. Special Commission, or UNSCOM, which was charged
with destroying Iraq's weapons of mass destruction, was disbanded because of
systematic obstruction by Baghdad. Using various tricks and ploys, the
Republican Guard, an elite force tasked with protecting President Saddam
Hussein and defending the Iraqi capital, kept inspectors away from the sites
where Iraq was hiding related materials, equipment and data. Baghdad blamed
UNSCOM for harboring American spies.

In December 1998, following a series of obstructionist moves on the part of
Iraq, U.S. forces mounted a bombing campaign against Iraqi military
installations. The four-day operation, known as Desert Fox, brought the
inspections to a grinding halt. UNMOVIC was created the following year to
replace UNSCOM, but so far no inspections have been conducted.

The new U.N. Security Council resolution, which was unanimously adopted
earlier this month, calls for unconditional inspections. Inspectors will be
able to enter all facilities, including the vast complex of "presidential
palaces" that Iraq had shielded from previous inspections on the grounds
that access by outsiders would violate its sovereignty. The inspection team
is authorized to take Iraqi scientists out of the country for questioning.
Accompanied by armed guards, inspectors also will be able to bar the entry
of Iraqi personnel into facilities under inspection.

If Iraq makes false reports or obstructs inspections, it will face "serious
consequences," meaning that the U.S. will attack it. Baghdad last week
informed the Security Council of its acceptance of the resolution, thus
opening the way for the return of U.N. inspectors. This time around
President Hussein must respond with sincerity; he can flout U.N. authority
only at his peril.

Inspections will be conducted by UNMOVIC and IAEA. According to a report
released in August, UNMOVIC had 64 inspectors from 27 countries stationed at
the U.N. headquarters on a regular basis. Additionally, when extra help is
needed, the commission can call up 220 reserve specialists from 44
countries.

UNMOVIC inspections are expected to cover about 700 suspect sites in Iraq.
Technical specialists will conduct detailed checks on materials, equipment
and data related to biological, chemical and nuclear weapons as well as
ballistic missiles. In the event of an organized coverup, the ability of
U.N.-trained inspectors will be put on the line.

The big question is whether a war with Iraq can be avoided. Information
emanating from the Bush administration suggests military action might start
early next year. The prevailing view, at least in official Washington,
appears to be that war is inevitable because, judging from President
Hussein's past behavior, it will be difficult to carry out full inspections.

But anticipating a war even before the start of inspections is denying the
value of inspections themselves. If Iraq actually violates the UNSC
resolution, then the council should determine whether the violation
constitutes a "material breach" -- a major violation that would give a green
light to the use of force. The sticking point is exactly what a material
breach means. The U.S. should not interpret it unilaterally to justify an
invasion of Iraq.

At any rate, tension will likely build in the Mideast from late this year to
early next year, depending on interactions between the inspection team and
Baghdad. What is important in this process is that inspections be conducted
without a foregone conclusion. The primary objective is to thoroughly check
all suspect sites to strip Iraq of all weapons of mass destruction in a
peaceful manner. To this end, all nations involved must make their utmost
efforts. It is still possible to avoid a war with Iraq.

The Japan Times: Nov. 20, 2002
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