[Nasional-e] Iraqi cleric may aid the U.S.

[Ambon]

Iraqi cleric may aid the U.S.
Michael R. Gordon/NYT The New York Times  Tuesday, November 26, 2002

Shiite ayatollah, foe of Saddam, is backed by Iran

KUWAIT An Iranian-backed ayatollah may seem an unlikely ally for the Bush
administration, but consider Ayatollah Mohammed Bakir Hakim. The ayatollah
is an Iraqi Shiite who has been living in Tehran for more than two decades.
He is backed by the Iranian government, which President George W. Bush has
labeled an "axis of evil.'
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Still, the United States and the Shiite cleric are in the process of forging
a political alliance of convenience. It is an arrangement that is strongly
supported by Kuwait, Washington's staunchest Arab ally in its campaign to
dislodge President Saddam Hussein of Iraq.
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The alliance is also quietly backed by Tehran, a subtle signal that Iran
seems prepared to offer a modicum of cooperation if the Bush administration
mounts a military campaign in Iraq.
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"Our job right now is to change the current regime," Hakim said in an
interview in Kuwait. "It is very important that there be an understanding
between the Iraqi opposition and the United States."
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The Bush administration appears to agree. The ayatollah received a letter
last week from Deputy Defense Secretary Paul Wolfowitz and three other
ranking administration officials, asking him to send a representative to a
Dec. 10 meeting of Iraqi opposition leaders in London.
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The purpose of the session is to endorse a set of democratic principles for
governing Iraq if Saddam is deposed, and to commit the successor government
to destroying Iraq's weapons of mass destruction.
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Opposition leaders would also be asked to reaffirm Iraq's territorial
integrity.
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The reason the Bush administration would like Shiites at that meeting is
clear. While Iraq has been dominated by the Sunni Muslim minority, an
estimated 55 percent of the nation's population are Shiites.
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The administration wants to demonstrate that it has broad support among
Iraq's diverse array of opposition groups. It also wants to encourage a new
structure for government: a system in which Shiites would be represented but
in which fundamentalist Islam would not become the dominant ideology.
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Advertising Washington's concern for Iraq's Shiites could also help any
American or allied military intervention as well. Much of Baghdad is
populated by Shiites, and they also dominate southern Iraq, the principal
invasion route that forces would take if they moved toward the capital.
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Hakim was one of nine Iraqi opposition leaders who received the letter from
the Bush team and one of two Shiites. The other Shiite is Mohammed Bahr
Eloom, a moderate cleric living in London. Hakim's organization is called
the Supreme Assembly of the Islamic Resolution in Iraq. Aides said the
organization planned to open an office in Washington soon.
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Even so, there are apparently strains between Hakim and the Americans, which
he does not seem at pains to hide. The Bush administration, for example, is
eager to obtain Hakim's political support; but, Hakim said, the
administration has not indicated any interest in forging a military alliance
with Hakim's guerrilla force, the Badr brigade, which has several thousand
members. Experts said the group is trained, equipped and influenced by the
Revolutionary Guard of Iran.
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Hakim seems prepared to work with Washington if an American or allied
invasion enables him to secure a place in a new power structure in Iraq, but
he said he would like to see U.S. forces leave as soon as possible.
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"Iraqis are able to manage their own lives," Hakim said. "I see no need for
American forces to remain in Iraq, because no external forces threaten
Iraq."
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After the Gulf War, there were occasional contacts between Hakim's movement
and the Central Intelligence Agency, according to Iraqi opposition figures,
but no real cooperation. That began to change as U.S. policy shifted from
containing Saddam's government to making military plans to destroy it.
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Still, the relationship has not developed easily. After the Bush
administration invited Hakim to join other Iraqi opposition figures in
Washington for a meeting last August, he initially demurred. Just days
before that meeting, Ahmad Chalabi, who heads the Iraqi National Congress,
an umbrella group of opposition leaders, flew to Tehran to persuade Hakim to
send a representative. Hakim sent his brother, who gave the Pentagon a
report detailing alleged Iraqi plans to use poison gas to suppress future
Shiite rebellions.
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A big question is just how much influence Hakim still has in Iraq, and how
much independence he has from the Iranian government. Hakim has asserted
that he does not coordinate his strategy with Tehran and that his main
interest is protecting the rights of the Shiites in a new and democratic
Iraq. That claim has been viewed skeptically by some experts.
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"He is representing fundamentalist Islam, which does not allow any
democracy," said Amatzia Baram, an expert on Iraq at the University of Haifa
in Israel. "And he is representing Iranian interests. Still, he should be
included. Lots of people in Iraq know of him."
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Some experts say Hakim's Iran connection has a benefit. It gives Iran a
stake in a future Iraqi government and helps encourage Iran's neutrality, or
possibly even cooperation, if the White House attacks Iraq, said David Mack,
a former State Department official. There have been other signs of Iranian
cooperation, including moves by the Iranian Navy to close its territorial
waters to smugglers going to and from Iraq.
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In addition to the two Shiite leaders it asked to attend the London session,
the Bush administration also sent messages to Chalabi; the two leading
Kurdish groups; the Iraqi National Accord, an organization of former members
of the Arab Ba'ath Socialist Party; a group that wants to restore the
monarchy, and organizations that represent the Turkoman and Assyrian
minorities in Iraq.