[Nasional-e] [Nasional] Japan, China Largely Helpless To Bolster Shaky Indonesia

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Japan, China Largely Helpless To Bolster Shaky Indonesia
16 October 2002

Summary

Both Japan and China have strongly condemned the weekend bombing on the 
Indonesian island of Bali, and Tokyo has dispatched a terrorism response 
team to Indonesia to aid the investigation. For both Beijing and Tokyo, 
instability in Indonesia poses a major economic and strategic threat, but 
neither has many options available to ensure Indonesian stability.

Analysis

In the wake of the weekend bombings in Bali, the governments of China and 
Japan have expressed their sympathies, condemned the attacks and reasserted 
their commitment to fighting terrorism. Tokyo dispatched its Terrorist 
Response Team, which arrived in Bali late Oct. 15, to assist with the 
investigation and look for links to Islamic militant groups, according to 
Japanese officials cited by Kyodo News.

Both China and Japan have strategic and economic interests in Indonesia's 
ability to maintain domestic stability, and the Bali bombing poses a serious 
challenge to the Indonesian government. But there is little Tokyo or Beijing 
can do to ensure Indonesia remains a viable, stable state.

Nearly 15 percent of global cross-border trade travels through Southeast 
Asian waters, much of it passing through Indonesia's three key straits: the 
Strait of Malacca, the Sunda Strait and the Lombok Strait. In addition, 
trade to and from Australia also traverses the Makassar Strait and the 
Torres Strait, the latter of which separates Australia from Papua New Guinea 
and eastern Indonesia.



For both China and Japan, the biggest threat from Indonesian instability 
would be to shipping lanes. Thirty-nine percent of Japanese trade travels 
through Southeast Asia. As a part of that trade, Japan gets 75 percent to 80 
percent of its oil supplies from the Middle East -- all of which travel past 
Indonesia.

Other Japanese energy imports that could be affected by serious disruptions 
in Indonesia include coal shipments from Australia and liquefied natural gas 
imports, 36 percent of which come directly from Indonesia, according to the 
Energy Information Agency.

As for China, nearly 27 percent of its overall foreign trade passes through 
the area. In addition, China imports nearly a third of its oil supplies, 
much of which come from the Middle East. And Beijing recently has signed 
deals with Australia and Indonesia for them to supply natural gas to 
mainland China.

Although Indonesia is of obvious importance to China and Japan, both are 
limited in their ability to influence events in the Southeast Asian giant. 
Japan no longer has the economic might it once did to use aid and trade as 
tools for guiding foreign governments, and Japanese businesses have joined 
most of the rest of the international business community in leaving 
Indonesia or shunning new investments until the government and security 
situations stabilize.

And neither Japan nor China can intervene militarily, albeit for different 
reasons. Tokyo remains constrained by its constitutional interpretations 
against military actions beyond self-defense, and Beijing maintains a 
cautious approach to interference in other nations' internal affairs -- at 
least by direct military means -- to avoid setting a precedent that could be 
used against China.

Meanwhile, Beijing and Tokyo disagree on what should be the level of U.S. 
and Australian involvement in Indonesia: Japan approves of more direct 
interaction and China prefers that Indonesia remain outside the sway of 
Washington.

At best, the two nations can -- and do -- participate in regional 
intelligence sharing on threats to international shipping, and Japanese 
ships and planes take part in bilateral and multilateral patrols of the 
Strait of Malacca. Japan also is taking a direct role in the investigations 
in Bali, and China has offered to arm the Indonesian military, which has 
faded in strength and unity since the fall of former President Suharto 
following the onset of the 1997 Asian economic crisis.

As a possible contingency plan in case of future instability, Beijing and 
Tokyo might try to make contact with Islamic militant and separatist groups 
in Indonesia in hopes of having allies in place should the nation fall into 
chaos. But this would be a very dangerous policy, one as likely to stir 
unrest in the near term as to provide security guarantees in the long run.

For both China and Japan, the destabilization of Indonesia could have 
devastating economic and security implications. Despite their differences, 
both are, to a large degree, dependent upon the United States and Australia 
to step in where Indonesia is concerned. Yet Washington and Canberra's 
interactions with Jakarta thus far have done little to restore order. In the 
meantime, Beijing and Tokyo can do little but wait and watch, and plan for 
the worst.



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