[Nasional-e] Friends now, but will it last?

[Ambon]

Kenneth Lieberthal The New York Times Saturday, October 26, 2002
China and America

ANN ARBOR, Michigan American relations with China have improved in a way
that few could have imagined when the Bush administration entered office and
declared China a "strategic competitor." Now signs of serious cooperation
are everywhere.
.
China has worked with the United States on the global counterterrorism
effort, will not be the spoiler on a new UN resolution on Iraq, has recently
adopted stringent regulations on dual-use missile technology exports and
other proliferation issues, and is discussing cooperation with the United
States on North Korea.
.
Meanwhile, the White House did not oppose Beijing's bid for the 2008 Olympic
games, supported China's accession to the World Trade Organization and even
acceded to Beijing's concerns about Islamic terrorist activities in the
country's northwest Xinjiang region, putting a key group there on the U.S.
terrorism list.
.
President George W. Bush's decision to host Jiang Zemin, the Chinese
president, at the Crawford ranch Friday is another sign of good relations.
.
Bush and Jiang will then attend the Asia-Pacific Economic Cooperation
conference in Mexico, where Bush will see the leaders of U.S. allies - Japan
and South Korea. The special treatment for Jiang highlights the remarkable
development of U.S.-China relations, especially since Sept. 11.
.
The key reasons for this improved relationship are clear. In the wake of
Sept. 11, Bush welcomed China's cooperation in bringing Pakistan into an
anti-Taliban coalition and obtaining a strong UN resolution on terrorism.
.
Equally important, China's leaders have been eager to stabilize the
relationship. They want to avoid confronting the United States, especially
when their domestic agenda is full with succession and other issues. They
also count on American trade and investment to help keep their economy
growing fast enough to maintain domestic stability.
.
In general, China has adopted a more confident overall approach to foreign
policy. Beijing seems now to feel accepted as a major, respected actor in
the international arena. It is actively pursuing multilateral approaches to
trade and security issues and is rapidly opening its economy to increased
foreign investment.
.
Yet we should not forget that the U.S.-China relationship has long been
characterized by wide swings of emotion, from amity to anger. It may be too
early to say that the relationship has stabilized for the long term. Here
are three notes of caution.
.
First, the counterterrorism effort that now provides the foundation for
strategic cooperation could become a source of serious friction. China has
no love for Saddam Hussein, terrorism or nuclear weapons on the Korean
peninsula, but it worries about American tactics in dealing with these
issues. If the United States attacks Iraq without UN approval, for example,
Beijing will be deeply shaken.
.
Second, there are vociferous critics of cooperation in both countries who
have been silent but could raise their voices should circumstances change.
In Washington, conservative Republicans have been loathe to criticize a
conservative Republican president, even over warming ties with China.
.
And liberal Democrats have had trouble finding their footing on China's
human rights record in the wake of new national security concerns. But they,
along with those in the administration who hold dark views of China as a
potential military adversary, would become vocal should relations with China
begin to unravel.
.
In China, debate continues over America's long-term goals and China's
security. Should serious leadership rifts develop over domestic issues,
policy toward the United States could well become part of the political
battle.
.
Third, the Taiwan issue is both hopeful and treacherous, as rapidly growing
economic ties across the Taiwan Strait are being matched by an escalating
arms race on both sides. The possibility of disaster cannot yet be
discounted.
.
U.S. interests require that America supports the maintenance of Taiwan's
democratic freedom, prosperity and security. There are also long-standing
U.S. commitments, affirmed by the Bush administration, not to support a
Taiwan bid for independence.
.
Bush declared early on that he will do "whatever it takes" to defend Taiwan.
But the administration has not taken initiatives to increase the chances of
a peaceful resolution of cross-strait issues.
.
These issues are intertwined and, although both sides value cooperation,
they will remain central to America's relations with China long after the
visit is over at Crawford.
.
The writer, a professor of political science at the University of Michigan,
served as senior director for Asia on the National Security Council from
1998 to 2000. He contributed this comment to The New York Times.


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