[Nasional-e] Big powers can learn to get along

[Ambon]

 Big powers can learn to get along

 Jing-dong Yuan and Tsuneo Akaha IHT Friday, September 27, 2002

China and Japan

TOKYO As China and Japan prepare to mark the 30th anniversary of normal
diplomatic ties this Sunday, their relations are clouded by the shadow of
the past, deep mutual distrust, rivalry for regional leadership, unresolved
territorial disputes and other issues.
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Since 1972, China and Japan have developed extensive ties in trade,
investment and cultural exchanges. Two-way trade is now close to $90
billion, making Japan one of China's top trade partners. Japanese investment
in China amounts to well over $25 billion, with major Japanese automakers
and electronic giants relocating their manufacturing to China. Some $15
billion in Japanese government aid has made a significant contribution to
Chinese economic development in the last three decades.
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Despite the deepening economic interdependence, a solid foundation is yet to
be developed for bilateral political ties. The Cold War alignment against
Soviet expansionism no longer exists. New issues and changing mutual
perceptions can, if mismanaged, further weaken Chinese-Japanese relations.
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The two countries remain haunted by the past. Reports that Japanese history
textbooks sanitize the brutal occupation of China before and during World
War II continue to rankle in China. Visits to the Yasukuni Shrine, which
honors some war criminals, by senior Japanese politicians anger Beijing. The
recent Tokyo District Court decision rejecting Chinese plaintiffs' claims
for compensation while admitting cruel wartime human experiments by the
notorious Unit 731 is another example how historical legacies continue to
add venom to bilateral relations.
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Beijing suspects that Japan is building a stronger military that might one
day be used to project power overseas again. It is concerned by the alliance
between Japan and the United States, by Japan's role in research with the
United States related to missile defenses and by Tokyo's attitude to Taiwan.
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Japan is wary of China's growing military and economic power, particularly
its increasing defense budgets and the program to modernize nuclear weapons
and the missiles to deliver them. The territorial dispute over the Senkaku
Islands, which China calls the Diaoyu Islands, remains unresolved. Tokyo
reacts strongly to intrusions into its territorial waters by Chinese
maritime survey ships.
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The new generation of Japanese politicians, and the public at large, are
becoming increasingly impatient with the politics of apologies.
.
Political and public support in Japan for economic aid to China is waning.
The harsh handling of North Korean asylum-seekers at the Japanese Consulate
in Shenyang in May generated strong nationalist reaction among Japanese
politicians.
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Consumers in Japan are increasingly concerned about the safety of Chinese
food imports and are buying fewer such items as a result. The generally
insular Japanese attribute many crimes by foreigners in their country to
Chinese illegal immigrants and to criminal elements with ties to China.
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China and Japan are poised for intense rivalry for regional leadership. A
critical challenge to future leaders in both capitals may well be the
question of how this potential competition is to be managed. Never in
history have the two countries been powerful at the same time. The Japanese
welcome China's membership in the World Trade Organization and its
integration into the international community, but they remain wary of a
strong China with strategic and political interests that run counter to
those of the Japanese-U.S. alliance.
.
China and Japan both want stability on the Korean Peninsula but are far from
sharing a common view of the future of Korea, reunited or not.
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They have tried to manage differences and disputes with confidence-building
measures, regular consultations to exchange views and a series of security
dialogues. But to reach a mature, stable relationship they need to do much
more.
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Needed steps include greater efforts to promote understanding and exchanges,
especially among the future generations of leaders and the young; mechanisms
for avoiding air and maritime incidents between the two militaries; expanded
exchanges of defense ministers, military chiefs and officers and more port
visits by each other's navies.
.
China and Japan should clarify their mutual intentions. China should be more
transparent about its defense spending, military buildup and strategic
modernization. Japan should be open about the role it seeks in future
Asia-Pacific security, its nuclear policy, its intentions toward Taiwan and
the scope of the U.S.-Japanese alliance.
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There should be greater consultation on regional security issues. The
militaries should conduct joint search and rescue activities.
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Jing-dong Yuan is a senior research associate at the Center for
Nonproliferation Studies at the Monterey Institute of International Studies,
Monterey, California. Tsuneo Akaha directs the Center for East Asian Studies
at the institute. They contributed this comment to the International Herald
Tribune.