[Nasional-e] Southeast Asia confronts Islamist terror groups

[Ambon]

Southeast Asia confronts Islamist terror groups

Inside Asia John Aglionby

John Aglionby

Within days of the Bali bombings last October Indonesia's defence minister,
Matori Abdul Djalil, confidently announced that al-Qaida and its local
affiliates were responsible for the devastating attack that killed more than
190 people.Yet this month the country's police chief, General Da'i Bachtiar,
admitted that his investigators - who have received justified praise for the
way they have investigated the blasts - have not established any firm link
between the Bali bombing and Osama bin Laden's terrorist network.
Moreover while detectives have arrested 17 alleged perpetrators of the
bombings, they have yet to connect the metaphorical dots that many people
believe link Abu Bakar Ba'aysir - the alleged spiritual leader of Jemaah
Islamiyah, the Indonesian group most closely associated with al-Qaida - to
the Bali bombing.
So what's the truth? Or, more importantly, what can be proved? And, perhaps
most crucial of all, to what extent have Islamic terrorist groups in
Southeast Asia been eliminated, or rendered incapable of mounting further
operations?
The short-term goal of rounding up the bombers and their immediate
associates appears to be well on the way to fruition. Only eight of the 25
suspected bombers remain at large, and those arrested appear to be committed
enough to their cause not to be afraid of confessing.
The first trials are due to begin next month, although their location has
yet to be decided. The debate is over whether moving them off Bali to ensure
a potentially fairer hearing outweighs the very real risk of major unrest if
the Balinese are not allowed to witness the prosecution of the people who
allegedly ravaged their livelihoods.
That is the good news. What is less heartening for anyone seeking the quiet
life in Southeast Asia is that Islamist groups bent on wreaking terror still
exist, are training, and are probably thriving.
Reports by groups as varied as the respected Brussels-based thinktank the
International Crisis Group (ICG), the Singapore government, the Philippines
intelligence agencies and the Indonesian police point to a web of active
groups. Their aims range from seeking to blow up foreign interests to
creating a regional Islamic caliphate encompassing most of Malaysia,
Indonesia, the southern Philippines and probably Singapore and Brunei.
Much of the focus has been, and remains, on Jemaah Islamiyah, its  enigmatic
alleged supreme leader Ba'aysir, and its elusive alleged operations chief,
Riduan Isamuddin, better known as Hambali.
In its most recent report the ICG suggested that Jemaah is no longer a
single united entity but is starting to fracture. There are divisions about
whether to lie low for a while or to continue high-profile attacks. Ba'aysir
apparently thinks this is not the time for further attacks while Hambali
seems to be in the more belligerent camp.
What is perhaps more dangerous, as far as the future of the movement is
concerned, is that the group's structure is relatively fragmented, according
to the ICG. While this means command and control structures within the
organisation are weak and irregular, it also suggests that many cells are
likely to function independently.
Last week Singapore published a rare White Paper on the Jemaah arrests and
the threat of terrorism. The paper is in part a pat on the back (or cynical
propaganda, depending on your point of view) for the government's ability to
allegedly smash the group in the island republic and arrest 31 key members,
and part warning to remain vigilant. Unsurprisingly it comes to many of the
same broad conclusions about the group as the ICG report.
 Essentially much more work has to be done if the real threat posed by
Jemaah and similar groups is to be permanently contained.
But Jemaah is not the only group capable of causing trouble. Last December
three people were killed when a small bomb was detonated at a McDonald's
restaurant in the Indonesian city of Makassar, in southern Sulawesi. While
some of the alleged perpetrators are thought to have links to Jemaah, the
main group being held responsible is Laskar Jundullah. Its strength is hard
to estimate, but if the report by the local police on finding five abandoned
training camps in the past few weeks is correct, then it could number more
than 100.
It is thought the training was conducted by local radicals with experience
in Afghanistan and/or the southern Philippines and a handful of foreigners
dedicated to spreading and developing their jihad.
A number of the alleged McDonald's bombers have been arrested, but it is
still not clear how far Laskar Jundullah wanted to spread its  wings. Until
that is determined, the threat it poses cannot be truly quantified. Most
analysts believe that the scope of operations may be pan-Indonesian but
doesn't stretch overseas.
The links between radical groups based in Indonesia and Malaysia, and their
counterparts in the southern Philippines, such as elements of the Moro
National Liberation Front, the Moro Islamic Liberation Front and the Abu
Sayyaf Group appear to be consolidating again after a few years of calm.
The groups in the southern Philippines are part of a complex collage of
competing interests and ideals, but there are certainly hundreds of people
committed to unleashing an Islamist terror campaign across the region.
The extent to which these groups will flourish in the months to come is hard
to predict. Senior police officers from across the region - along with
observers from 28 nations further afield - are scheduled to meet this week
to improve cooperation between their law enforcement agencies. Few instant
results are expected.
Even though there is a greater desire to fight the terrorists and a greater
sense of urgency than before the Bali bombing, not many people are betting
against another significant attack in the region this year.

The Guardian Weekly 20-3-0123, page 6