[Nasional-e] We are driving as to war

[Ambon]

We are driving as to war

War in Iraq is inevitable. That there would be war was decided by North
American planners in the mid-1920s. That it would be in Iraq was decided
much more recently. The architects of this war were not military planners
but town planners. War is inevitable not because of weapons of mass
destruction, as claimed by the political right, nor because of Western
imperialism, as claimed by the left. The cause of this war, and probably the
one that will follow, is car dependence.The US has paved itself into a
corner. Its physical and economic infrastructure is so highly car dependent
that the US is pathologically addicted to oil. Without billions of barrels
of precious black sludge being pumped into the veins of its economy every
year, the nation would experience painful and damaging withdrawal.
The first Model T Ford rolled off the assembly line in 1908 and was a
miracle of mass production. In the first decade of that century, car
registrations in the US increased from 8,000 to almost 500,000. Within the
cities, buses replaced trams, and then cars replaced buses. In 1932 General
Motors bought up America's tramways and then closed them down. But it was
the urban planners who really got America  hooked. Car ownership offered the
possibility of escape from dirty, crowded cities to leafy garden suburbs,
and the urban planners provided the escape routes.
Throughout the 1920s and 1930s America "road built" itself into a nation of
home-owning suburbanites. Cities such as Los Angeles, Dallas and Phoenix
were moulded by the private passenger car into vast urban sprawls which are
so widely spread that it is now almost impossible to service them
economically with public transport.
As the cities sprawled, the motor manufacturing industry consolidated.
Car-making is now the main industrial employer in the world, dominated by
five major groups, of which General Motors is the largest. The livelihood
and landscape of North Americans were forged by car-makers.
Motor vehicles are responsible for about one-third of global oil use, but
for nearly two-thirds of US oil use. In the rest of the world, heating and
power generation account for  most oil use. The increase in oil prices
during the 1973 Arab oil embargo encouraged the substitution of other fuels
in heating and power generation, but in the transport sector there is little
scope for oil substitution in the short term.
Due to artificially low oil and gasoline prices that did not reflect the
true social costs of production and use, there was little incentive to seek
alternative energy sources. The Arab oil embargo temporarily stimulated
greater fuel efficiency with the introduction of gasoline consumption
standards, but the increasing popularity of gas-guzzling sports utility
vehicles over the past decade has substantially reduced the fuel efficiency
of the US car fleet.
In 1997 the Carnegie commission on preventing deadly conflict identified
factors that put states at risk. They include rapid population changes that
outstrip the capacity of the state to provide essential services, and the
control of valuable natural resources by a single group. Both factors are
key motivators in the war with Iraq. Sprawling suburban America needs oil,
and Saddam Hussein is sitting on it.
The US economy needs oil like a junkie needs heroin, and Iraq has 112bn
barrels, the largest supply in the world outside Saudi Arabia. Even before
the first shot has been fired, there have been discussions  about how Iraq's
oil reserves will be carved up. All five permanent members of the UN
security council have international oil companies that have an interest in
"regime change" in Baghdad.
The first gasoline war was waged in Kuwait and the second will be waged in
Iraq. The world must act now to prevent the third. On the brink of war with
Iraq, Tony Blair is playing the role of tough world leader. But transport,
not Iraq, is the truly tough issue. His deputy, John Prescott, tried and
failed to deal with car dependency and now the government is in policy
retreat. London's mayor, Ken Livingstone, may with congestion charging
succeed where others have failed, but his enemies have the support of
powerful lobby groups.
Those who oppose war in Iraq must work together to prevent the conflicts
that will follow if we fail to tackle car dependency. We must reclaim the
streets, promote walking and cycling, strengthen public transport, oppose
new road construction and pay the full social cost of car use. We must argue
for land-use policies that reduce the need for car travel. We can all play
our part, and we must act now.
<I> Ian Roberts is professor of public health at the London School of
Hygiene and Tropical Medicine</I>

The Guardian Weekly 20-3-0123, page 11