[Marinir] Fw: [nasional-list] Andai RI deklarasikan bangkrut

Tue Feb 7 23:53:12 CET 2006

----- Original Message ----- 
From: BDG Kusumo 
To: nasional-list at yahoogroups.com 
Sent: Sunday, February 05, 2006 10:42 PM
Subject: [nasional-list] Andai RI deklarasikan bangkrut

ANDAI RI DEKLARASIKAN BANGKRUT

Sejak proses demokratisasi bergulir di Indoneia, permasalahan utang luar negeri menjadi tema diskusi terbuka yang tak habis-habisnya. 
Tidak saja Kwik Kian Gie (KKG), banyak lagi pakar dan penulis yang menganalisisnya sebagai hal yang sangat berat menelikung ekonomi nasional. Laksana "keniscayaan" yang harus diusung oleh beberapa generasi kedepan, tak ada jalan keluar yang optimal. Dalam keadaan
seperti ini sekira dua tahun silam ada yang "memelintir" nama KKG menjadi Don Kwiksot, dari Don Quijot de la Macha, seorang tokoh dalam 
susastra Spanyol yang secara naif dan sia-sia berjuang melawan kincir angin. Demikian KKG berupaya menghadapi dominasi IMF dan 
utang sebagai sebuah atributnya.

Telah beberapa bulan ini permasalahan utang LN mencuat lagi. Belum lama ini saya mendadak ingat pada Argentina, yang sekira 2 tahun yang
lalu sebagai negara menyatakan bangkrut! Setelah keberatan memanggul beban utang yang sebagai debt services menjadi berdimensi
kolosal. Bagaimana nasib los Argentinos, bangsa berjiwa los gauchos de las pampas, koboi ugal-ugalan dari padang rumput disana yang sangat 
keras sifatnya, machos yang cepat memakai belati untuk menyelesaikan berbagai masalah?

Apakah mereka, untuk meminjam istilah Bung Karno, telah terpuruk dan terjerembab menjadi "bangsa kuli dan kuli antara bangsa-bangsa" seperti bangsa  Indonesia selama jaman penjajahan doeloe? Tercenung, saya berinisiatif untuk menanyakan kepada seorang kenalan yang akrab 
dengan permasalahan ekonomi global. Dan inilah jawabannya:

Dear  Bismo,

1. What happened in Argentina several years ago was that due to financial crisis, the country just disregarded  its agreement signed with the IMFand with other banks. They declared that from that moment on, they would not pay debt service but only 10% its of foreign exchange earnings.

2.Internally, as the authotities were afraid of overall panic, which would induce people to withdraw their deposits, the govt. prohibited the money wthdrawals from all the banks beyond US$ 200, i.e. maximum amount of total withdawal from each account  was two hundreds US$ and only once. There would be another measure after 6 month. This measure was called "El corralito" ( a closed  space where the chickens are raised, on the back side of  the country houses).

3.In the outset they just did that, meaning that the debt service payment (principal+interest) was 10%  from the foreign exch. earnings, but after the third years or so, they just didn't pay anything! 

4.In my opinion it was a fait acompli and one sided decision. Yes, you're right. It affected tremendously the country's credit rating. Dishonoring the country's international commitment, specially in the financial areas,  does no good to its international credibility and affects its international standing. 

5.The IMF is viewed by all private Banks in the world as its leader. Once you get a bad concept from them, you're just out of the international monetary system and  get isolated. Unless you own unlimited amount of international reserve( and it's not the case), you're just finished!

6.However, if you have bargaining power ( such as proven natural resources to be exploited, future earnings from your allocated investment or other future incomes coming from  privatisation or from the tax increase.) you can negotiate the country's payments rescheduling. That was what the argentinians did, the Govt. sold everything, telecommunication companies, Banks, Airline, Utility companies ( energy, water and oher public services ) and improved its tax collections system and increasing its rates. 

And see, my friend, they still drink wine, dance  tango and, playing soccer beside paying its debts......

Regards, 

BDG Kusumo <bdgkusumo at volny.cz> wrote:
  Hallo, how's life?
  pls help me and explain what in hell had happened in Argentina
  after this country declared bankruptcy?

  Would Indonesia suffer so much on the ratings should she
  dare to declare bankcruptcy, too?

  B.Rgrds., 
  B. Gondokusumo

  Gile! Saya juga kadang-kadang minum red wine, yang katanya sebagai antioksidan baik untuk melawan radikal bebas yang ada didarah kita, jadi bukan segala macam radikal yang gentayangan disana-sini. Sebagai pecinta tango, terutama La Cumparsita, saya kaget. Sebagai fan saya
  harus perhitungkan bahwa team sepak bola Ceko bisa saja bentrokan dengan los Argentinos di World Soccer Championships bulan Juni ini di
  Jerman.

  Saya tidak lagi mengenal dengan baik sifat dan apalagi ketangguhan bangsa kita. Apa ada jajaran pimpinan nasional yang akan berani
  mengambil langkah seperti Argentina? Mungkinkah dalam "masa bakti" terkini? Atau setelah 2009? Sehingga bangsa ini akan lebih lega dalam
  melaksanakan nation building tanpa keberatan beban utang luar negeri?

  Mungkinkah teman saya itu nantinya akan menulis email ke saya yang ditutupnya sbb: 

  "And see, my friend, they (the Indonesians) still drink tea, dance dangdut and, playing badminton beside paying their debts ...".   
  VOILA !!!   Dan siapa tau ???

  Bismo DG, Praha, Rep Ceko

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      Organizational politics  

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