[Nasional-m] No UN compromises on weapons inspections

[Ambon]

IHT

No UN compromises on weapons inspections
  David L. Phillips International Herald Tribune Tuesday, August 13, 2002



Dealing with Saddam

NEW YORK Iraq realizes that the United States is serious about regime change
and, to avert military action, is looking to resume United Nations talks on
weapons inspections. While the Bush administration views Iraq's sudden
accommodation with distrust, it must be careful not to exacerbate divisions
in the international community by opposing UN weapons inspections.
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This month Iraq's foreign minister, Naji Sabri, proposed a joint Iraqi-UN
"comprehensive" review of Iraq's weapons program. This proposal was a
blatant effort to undermine procedures established by the Security Council
for conducting weapons inspections. By feigning compliance, Saddam hopes to
obfuscate the extent of his biological, chemical and nuclear programs, as
well as Iraq's missile development program.
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Baghdad's diplomatic manipulations are nothing new. In 1998, the UN
secretary general, Kofi Annan, visited Iraq in an ill-conceived attempt to
head off U.S. air strikes. At first, his success was widely acclaimed. But
subsequently Iraq repudiated him and scorned its agreement with the United
Nations.
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Once burned twice shy, Annan responded appropriately last week by cautiously
welcoming Iraq's invitation for further talks. In his reply, he affirmed the
Security Council's existing guidelines for conducting weapons inspections.
Moreover, he made clear that sanctions would not be lifted unless Iraq fully
complies with UN demands.
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If Iraq is sincere about its desire to resolve issues with the United
Nations, Sabri will have to deal directly with Hans Blix, a former head of
the International Atomic Energy Agency and current Executive Chairman of the
UN Monitoring, Verification and Inspection Commission. Baghdad will be hard
pressed to pull the wool over the eyes of Blix, a seasoned diplomat.
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The United States and the United Nations have a common interest in fostering
diplomacy to eradicate Iraq's weapons of mass destruction. To this end,
Washington should support UN efforts to resume a credible weapons
inspections process. If indeed Iraqi leaders have nothing to hide, they will
finalize plans for the commission to visit Iraq to discuss modalities for
comprehensive inspections. Security Council resolution 1284 directs the
commission to draw up a work plan addressing key remaining disarmament
tasks. "What is required of Iraq for implementation of each task shall be
clearly defined and precise," the resolution says.
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To guarantee the integrity of a new inspections regime, the United Nations
must ensure that Iraqi authorities have no influence over the composition or
itinerary of the inspection team.
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There are several points at which the resumption of credible weapons
inspections could break down. First, Baghdad may refuse to issue a formal
invitation to the commission. Iraqi authorities are already seeking to
undermine Blix by insinuating he is a U.S. spy.
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Second, Baghdad may take steps to hinder the commission's work by failing to
issue visas to team members; limiting the commission's access to sensitive
sites; or harassing individual UN experts it deems hostile to its interests.
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And third, in the unlikely event that the commission is able to elaborate
terms of reference for comprehensive inspections, Baghdad would be unlikely
to go along. Invoking prerogatives of national sovereignty, Saddam would
denounce the United Nations; reject its list of disarmament tasks; and
discontinue discussions with the world body.
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The United States should welcome the recent diplomatic developments. There
is little risk for Washington in a resumption of talks between the United
Nations and Iraq about implementing Resolution 1284. The United Nations has
learned from experience and will not be fooled again.
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Baghdad knows precisely what it must do to normalize relations with the
international community. If Saddam fails to comply, detractors of regime
change will realize that military action is necessary and justifiable.
Diplomacy may run its course just in time for a spring offensive to topple
Saddam's heinous regime.
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The writer is deputy director of the Center for Preventive Action at the
Council on Foreign Relations in New York. He contributed this comment to the
International Herald Tribune.