[Nasional-e] East and West are drifting apart

[Ambon]

  East and West are drifting apart
 Philip Bowring IHT  Tuesday, February 4, 2003

Nuts to Davos and Porto Alegre

LONDON East and West are drifting apart politically and economically.
Globalization may still be a word that people love or hate, but the lesson
from the latest Davos and Porto Alegre meetings, or from comparing the
priorities of New York, Paris or São Paolo with those of Beijing, Hong Kong
or Seoul, is of divergence.
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History holds several examples of contacts between East Asia and the West
being interrupted, sometimes for long periods, by war or chaos cutting the
Silk Road. Are we seeing another as the lands of Islam between the Indus and
the Black Sea face both turmoil within and confrontation with the West?
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The threat of war in Iraq may be temporary, but it is helping to underline
how Asian and Western perceptions of interest are growing apart.
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It is occurring, too, at a time when there is a kernel of confidence in East
Asia that its economy has a momentum of its own and can continue to prosper
even if its current main trading partners, the United States and Europe, no
longer provide the stimulus to which Asia has become accustomed.
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>From the standpoint of the East, America and Europe have both, in their
different ways, become so obsessed with Iraq and Islam that they exacerbate
deep-seated problems and so endanger a broader global stability.
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Asians resent what they mostly see as a latter-day outburst of Western
imperialist instincts, with potential for damage to the global economy.
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They note, too, that the views of Asia are given scant attention in Europe
or the United States, which both assume that the international
configurations of 1945 should and will remain intact.
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But due to their interest in maintaining good relations with America, the
Asians mostly keep their opinions to themselves.
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The bottom line is that they want to stay as far away from the issue of Iraq
and the Middle East as a partially globalized world permits. They suspect
that the era when pan-Pacific developments were on the global cutting edge
is over, as America's concerns with Europe and the Middle East, with
homeland defense and with its increasingly important Hispanic population and
Western Hemisphere connections overshadow the links to East Asia. Given U.S.
budgetary problems, there is a likelihood before long of a reduction of the
American military presence in Asia, which has been such a major factor in
regional stability. This is undesirable but probably inevitable. Asia will
have to do more to help itself.
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Meanwhile, there is growing Asian resentment at under-representation in
international institutions. This does not apply just to the composition of
the Security Council and the policies of the World Bank and the
International Monetary Fund. It is also apparent in UN agencies and at
forums such as Davos and Porto Alegre, where debates on economic policy are
framed by the ideological divides of the West, including Latin America,
largely to the exclusion of the experiences and practices of an East Asia
which has long been at the forefront of development. South Korea, China,
Malaysia and others are admired from a distance, but their views and experts
are largely excluded from key institutions.
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The reality of Asian growth is reinforcing the self-confidence of the
region.
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The mainstream Western economists who appear at Davos and elsewhere continue
to claim that Asia and most of the rest of the world are hostage to U.S.
economic performance. Porto Alegre emphasizes the evils of Western
multinationals and the "Washington consensus" in stifling development and
increasing inequity. Both views often seem myopic and paternalistic to an
Asia which has recovered and learned lessons from its crisis.
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Asian economies - excluding Japan but including India - have performed well
in the past two years despite weakness in the West. They should continue to
do relatively very well. All have large reserves and current account
surpluses and are in a position to continue to spur domestic demand if
Western demand, held back by debt and demography, contin- ues to falter.
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Intra-regional trade is moving gradually from dependence on the West as the
ultimate consumer to consumption within the region. While Western
nongovernmental organizations and once rich Latin Americans blame others for
their own failures, Asians mostly welcome old multinationals, and are too
busy creating their own new ones to bother about Davos or Porto Alegre.