[Nasional-e] Democracy in the Middle East

Wed Feb 5 00:36:15 2003

EDITORIAL

Democracy in the Middle East

Peace in the Middle East depends on two things: settlement of the
Arab-Israeli conflict and modernization of the Arab regimes in the region.
Attention has usually focused on the first item, as the consequences of
failure have long been plainly visible. But in recent months -- especially
since Sept. 11, 2001 -- more and more emphasis is being put on the second.
Indeed, it has become apparent that the two are inextricably linked. As Arab
societies have been unable to accommodate rising demands for political
participation, Israel has become a distraction and a convenient scapegoat
for many of those countries' failures.

For much of the postwar era, the West has accepted regimes in the Middle
East that can only be called feudal as a means of safeguarding access to the
region's vast supplies of oil. The willingness to turn a blind eye to
repressive governments has locked the West into a perilous spiral. The Arab
"street" sees Western nations as supporting antidemocratic regimes. The
masses' rhetoric then takes on an anti-Western component, which gives
Western governments even more reason to support the existing order.
Anti-Western sentiment intensifies and Arab governments have yet more
reasons to crack down on dissent since protests criticize both domestic and
foreign policy.

Any would-be reformers are tempered by the Iranian experience. Then, U.S.
support for democratic change resulted in the overthrow of a U.S. ally, the
rise of a government whose raison d'etre is implacable hostility to the U.S.
and the reshaping of the strategic landscape of the entire region.

Nonetheless, the status quo is unsupportable. The failures in the Middle
East are manifest. The 280 million citizens and 22 countries in the Arab
League had a combined gross domestic product of $531 billion in 1999,
producing less than Spain. The average Arab citizen earns 14 percent of the
average in countries of the Organization for Economic Cooperation and
Development. If the Arab world's per capita growth rate of 0.5 percent
annually over the past two decades continues, it will take the average Arab
citizen 140 years to double his income, compared with less than a decade for
citizens elsewhere.

A recent report by the United Nations Development Program concluded that
women in the Middle East suffer from unequal citizenship and legal
entitlements. Political and economic participation among Arab women remains
the lowest in the world when measured by the numbers of women in
Parliaments, Cabinets and the workforce. Most are denied equal opportunity
in jobs and wages; more than half are illiterate.

In 2001, Freedom House, the New York-based monitor of political and civil
rights, ranked Iraq, Libya, Saudi Arabia, Sudan and Syria among the 10
least-free nations in the world.

On Dec. 12, U.S. Secretary of State Colin Powell launched the "U.S.-Middle
East Partnership Initiative" to help these nations overcome this sad state
of affairs. While laudable and long overdue, that effort will produce
nothing without the drive for change within the Middle Eastern governments
themselves. That underscores the significance of the vision laid out
recently by Crown Prince Abdullah, the de facto ruler of Saudi Arabia, for
the modernization of the Arab world through increasing political
participation, promoting economic integration and guaranteeing mutual
security.

Prince Abdullah's proposed "Arab Charter" declares "that internal reform and
enhanced political participation in the Arab states are essential steps for
building Arab capabilities, and for providing conditions for a comprehensive
awakening and development of Arab human resources." It calls on Arab
countries to "boost our defense capabilities" and to "stand united against
any Arab state guilty of aggression on another Arab state." Finally, it
recommends an Arab free-trade zone by 2005 and a tariffs union by 2010 to
create a Common Arab Market.

There is both more -- and less -- to the proposal than meets the eye.
Noticeably absent from the document are any specifics, as well as any
mention of the word "democracy." The prince's plan is an attempt to deflect
external change and ensure that Arabs control their own destinies. In other
words, the Saudi proposal is an attempt to head off the more far-reaching
effects of the U.S. initiative by substituting a homegrown plan. The call to
boost defense capabilities is a similar bid to ensure that regional
governments have some say in constructing a regional order in the event that
Iraqi President Saddam Hussein is deposed.

Such tactical maneuvers are to be expected, but they will not change the
underlying reality of the Middle East. Pressures for more political
participation by Arab masses are rising. Some form of accommodation must be
encouraged. The alternative could be a conflagration that will make the
Arab-Israeli confrontation look tame in comparison.